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THE COMING DARK AGE
Newsletter
May, 2003
1. INTRODUCTION
This month's newsletter contains an explanation of the "Coming Dark
Age" book/website along with an essay by a reader on the problems of
oil and natural resource depletion.
I welcome all comments, suggestions and contributions, especially the
latter. Please forward this newsletter to anyone you think might be
interested.
Marc Widdowson
2. THE AIM OF THE COMING DARK AGE BOOK AND SITE
Some people have commented on the "Coming Dark Age" saying things like
"This is all very well, but what do you suggest we should do about it?"
One reader said, "It is not clear what the aim is, except to convert us
to a passive altruism," and suggested that I say more about "what, if
anything, can be learned from the mistakes of past societies." Such
comments show a fundamental misunderstanding of the Coming Dark Age
message. At the heart of dark age theory is the Phoenix Principle,
which states that things have to get worse before they can get better.
I won't go into the Phoenix Principle in detail here, but the basic
point is that dark ages are a vital, necessary and, yes, desirable
aspect of the historical process. If there were no dark ages, the human
race would tend towards equilibrium, which means stagnation and the
cessation of all progress. Dark ages throw everything back into the
melting pot, breaking down the comfortable status quo and forcing
humans to develop radical new solutions. Dark ages are like forest
fires, which seem destructive but actually renew the forest by clearing
out dead wood and allowing fresh, green growth to come through. The
bigger the dark age, the more radical the thinking and the greater the
amount of progress that is made. So it is not a case of past societies
making 'mistakes' that we can learn from, and it is not a case of us
trying to stop dark ages from happening. There are many particular
reasons why dark ages might have occurred in the past, just as there
are many particular reasons why a forest may catch fire. But if it
hadn't been one thing, it would have eventually been another, and the
truly important thing is the role that fires play in the ecology of the
forest and that dark ages play in history. Let me say it again. Dark
ages are not mistakes. They are not accidents. They are inextricably
bound up with the way that history works. There have always been dark
ages, and there always will be. So the aim of "The Coming Dark Age" is
obviously not to suggest how we can avoid the mistakes of the past and
prevent the dark age that is to come. It is to convey a deeper
understanding of history and of our current situation. It is to show
that what is happening today has not only happened many times before
but actually must happen for the long term benefit of the human race.
It is to say, "Yes, our civilisation is crumbling into selfishness,
disorder and financial bankruptcy, but don't despair, it is not the end
of the world. This is simply what happens to civilisations, and while
it seems very much like the problem, it is actually the solution." My
aim is to help people see things as they really are. That is all. But
it seems like a worthwhile aim to me.
3. RESOURCE DEPLETION
In the last newsletter I discussed the Ehrlich-Simon bet and explained
why resource depletion is not a fundamental obstacle to human progress.
I do not deny that problems with resources might play a role in the
ending of our civilisation, but this will only be the immediate reason.
The fundamental reason is our failing imagination as a civilisation,
which stops us from exploiting the huge reservoirs of resources that
exist in the oceans, deep in the earth's crust, and on the moon and
asteroids. We may think that those reservoirs remain permanently beyond
human reach. Wrong! That very thinking is the reason we are going into
decline. But after the dark age, when a new civilisation finally
emerges from the ashes, it will find a way to do things that seem
impossible to us. Nevertheless, many readers seem interested in the
whole issue of resource depletion, including the phenomenon of 'peak
oil,' and, as I have said, in the short term that may play a role in
our demise. In the next section, I therefore present an interesting
essay by a reader about precisely this issue.
4. THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME
(Note: numbers in brackets refer to notes at the end)
4.1 Background.
My apologies to H.G. Wells for use of the title but we are fast
approaching a turning point in the history of mankind.
There are limits to the amount of oil, natural gas and other fossil
fuels available to industrial man. The peak of oil discoveries in the
lower forty-eight states of the USA was 1930 and peak production 1970.
For the world the peak of discoveries was in the fifties and sixties.
The last major discoveries, the North Sea and Alaska reserves date from
the sixties. These areas have been exploited and are now in decline.
The forecast overall peak of world oil production is now and will soon
be declining according to the methodology of King Hubbert. (1)
The vast majority of the world's recoverable oil has been discovered.
There have been no major oil discoveries in the last thirty years to
significantly delay the end of the oil age. We already know about
almost all the oil reserves that exist in the world. THERE IS NO MORE!
(3)
The percentage of GDP that is energy related has dropped for several
reasons lulling us into a false sense of security. Some reasons are;
- The use of more efficient electric motors
- Railroads using AC traction with VFD's in locomotives rather than DC.
- Improvements in aircraft such as the use of high bypass engines,
super-critical airfoil designs, vortex breakers on wingtips, using the
jet stream etc.
- More fuel efficient cars, trucks etc.
- The use of combined cycle electric generation facilities. Note that
these units all use natural gas as a source of fuel.
- Increased and better heat conservation (insulation) techniques in
buildings and process plants etc. and residential hosing.
The price of oil is less relevant to production and supply than we
believe. The market price is determined by current economic conditions
with readily available oil. For the production of oil, or any basic
source of energy what matters ultimately is the amount of energy
expended to get a given quantity of oil (energy) to market.
In 1950 it took one barrel of oil energy to get fifty-five out of the
ground. Now for one barrel of oil energy we only get a return of five
and that is declining. Within a few years the energy cost to extract
oil will be greater than energy contained in the oil in the ground in
other words an energy sink.
Spending more energy in recovery than the energy in the ground should
not occur but inevitably will until we come to our senses.
Take a look at the energy investment in projects like Hibernia on the
Grand Banks off Newfoundland and the energy cost of bringing the oil to
market.
Look at the energy capital and operating costs of the project per
recoverable barrel. Hibernia oil has a very high wax content and has to
be kept at a very high temperature to enable it to be pumped. It costs
energy to maintain the oil at the required temperature. Tertiary
recovery from oil fields by steam or chemical injection, SAGD etc.
costs energy and will only briefly delay the inevitable.
We are fast approaching a balance between the energy cost of recovery
and the energy recovered. Thereafter it will cost more energy than we
will obtain from oil recovery.
We have the ability to get oil from the greatest depths of the tar
sands of northern Alberta and other difficult areas but what if any is
the net gain in usable energy? Are some of these oil reserves destined
to become 'energy sinks' gobbling up more energy to extract than the
energy they produce?
Production will start a steep decline between 2010 and 2020 and will be
twenty to thirty percent lower by 2030. The end of the oil age will be
some time just after 2050. There is no turning back. There will still
be a small amount of oil production in 2100 and beyond but not enough
to maintain industrial man.
4.2 Forecast for years 2010 to 2020 and beyond
Following are a few of the problems that mankind will face but not
necessarily in the order presented.
As the limits of oil and natural gas resources become more evident
there will be rising oil and natural gas prices. This should occur
before 2010. Money will likely be invested in oil exploration resulting
in some minor finds but the likelihood of any major discoveries is
extremely remote.
People will cut back on discretionary spending with holiday resorts and
cruise lines being hit first. Airlines business will drop and aircraft
manufacturing will slump.
As we keep our material possessions longer instead of throwing them
away manufacturing and retail sales will decline as will the restaurant
and fast food business with eating at home and gardening becoming more
common.
Ocean shipping will become more expensive and this will be reflected in
the price of everything shipped around the world. World trade will
contract.
Because of business slumps, drop in GDP etc. there will be massive
unemployment and social unrest around the world. There will be
hyperinflation as governments try to spend their way out of trouble.
Gold will become more of a store of value as paper 'fiat' money and
other forms of investment become worthless. Real estate values will
depend on location. Future societies (2) will be unpleasant and very
different to those of today until we reach a post-industrial stability.
Food production drops as fertilizer and diesel fuel become more
expensive. The oil created and dependent 'phantom' acres will vanish.
The USA will no longer have food surpluses and will need to import but
from where? Within the last decade China has now become even more
dependent than ever on importing food. The populations of China and
India are still growing and within a few years Indians will outnumber
Chinese if current trends continue.
Fuel rationing will be imposed by governments depending on availability
and need for oil by organizations and individuals. Car and truck sales
drop as commuters turn to transit systems resulting in more money being
spent in that area.
Natural gas and oil shortages in harsh winter environments prompt
people to move to warmer locations. What will all the gas heated
dwellings in Canada and the USA use when natural gas production
declines. The combined cycle electric generation facilities will no
longer be able to provide electricity when gas supplies become
depleted.
There will be a drop in population around the world but it will be
uneven. The population of Russia is currently in decline even as other
areas of the world are still experiencing an increase in their numbers.
The large countries by area, of the world will possibly break up into
smaller more manageable entities and the European Union will disappear
with all the countries reverting back to their original sovereign
status. The UN as we know it will vanish.
Societies that have not become heavily dependent on oil will have a
better chance of survival. Chiapas in Mexico is one example and there
are other areas. Southern California will be a disaster area being
almost one hundred percent dependent on oil for its life style.
Conflict in Middle East and Central Asia over oil is inevitable as
China, India and Europe compete for dwindling oil supplies and possibly
end up in a war with the US.
Geo-politically the era of European domination of the world is fast
drawing to a close. Birth rates among white Europeans (4) are at an all
time low, way below replacement levels. While the US is currently the
dominant world power with no serious challengers to it's hegemony in
sight we should not forget that Britain was in a similar position in
1914. It was greatly weakened by The Great War and went from being top
dog or should I say Bulldog to needing the help of the USA to fight
Germany and Japan in less than twenty five years. Even though Britain
still had its empire it was to loose most of it to independence
movements by the sixties.
The United States is the last European Imperial power and much of the
resentment against European Imperialism in former colonies will now be
directed their way. Many peoples in various parts of the world have
been dominated and betrayed by the Imperial European powers and nowhere
has that sense of betrayal generated more hostility than in the Middle
East where it forms a toxic mix when combined with oil and religious
conflict.
The US currently has a military presence in over one hundred and forty
countries and in many the populations have very anti American feelings.
The fall of the US is likely to be quicker and more dramatic than that
of Britain but more painful because of oil shortages although not as
swift as the demise of the Soviet Union.
Currently China and India are developing, getting a greater appetite
for oil and more significant military and economic clout but it is
debatable as to what the future holds for them. Both China and India
have an advantage over the Europeans in that they can say that they
know what it is like to be under European domination.
It is little mentioned but both WW1 and WW2 were in part fought over
resources. Germany tried unsuccessfully, in both world wars, to get
control of Caspian oil while Japan controlled the Dutch East Indies
(now Indonesia) for a few years in the second world war. The rise and
fall of the fortunes of countries have been tied to resources since
before the Roman Empire and still are. In its heyday Britain was self
sufficient in all the resources necessary to build its empire and
influence in the world. The US followed but in 1970 reached a turning
point when oil production in the lower forty eight states went into an
irreversible decline. Today the US with around four percent of the
worlds population consumes almost thirty percent of the worlds oil
production. World oil production incidentally is around its peak now
and will soon be declining. No major discoveries have been made since
the sixties.
The implications of this will have an impact in a number of areas.
Within individual countries what social unrest will develop as people
will not be able to fill their cars, heat their houses or buy food?
Because of the addiction of Americans and Canadians to their cars and
materialistic lifestyle the impact of oil shortages will hit hardest.
Will resource rich countries want to hold on to their resources and/or
play off one desperate country against another? Will the US and other
resource poor countries try to take the resources by the use of
military force? The US invasion of Afghanistan and aggressive stance
on Iraq, which has the second largest oil reserves is evidence that
this is already happening. Note the bombing of Serbia a few years ago
was mainly to secure a route to Europe for Caspian oil. Will there be
civil unrest in other countries? Will there be a war between the US on
one hand against China, India and Europe for the middle east oil?
With the multitude of forces at play in Central Asia and the Middle
East there are endless possibilities as to what the outcome could be.
4.3 Beyond oil
All the scientific and technical knowledge accumulated over the last
two hundred years will be available to post-industrial man. We will not
go back to the way things were in 1800 at the start of the industrial
revolution. There will still be the Internet, telephones, radio,
computers and many other of the wonders of our age.
Because of the collapse of our industrial society the levels of
pollution of all kinds will drop.
Heavy horses will once again be used in agriculture and for transport
but will sailing ships make a comeback? Cities will slowly be
depopulated or even abandoned as more will have to work in food
production and inevitably live in the country.
We will become much less of a throwaway society and materialism will
significantly decline. We will keep things until they are worn out just
as previous generations did. People will work and spend holidays closer
to home and travel far less while family and friends will become more
important to all. Much of what we need will be produced locally rather
than transported from the other side of the world. Many of the skilled
trades of yesteryear will make a comeback.
Most of the symbols of our industrial age will be abandoned ruins. The
refineries and office towers, the factories and assembly lines, the
abandoned suburbs will remind the future generations of our age. What
will future generations think of our superhighways when there are no
cars and of course Las Vegas?
After 2050 most of the social unrest will gradually subside and
post-industrial society will stablilse as people have to work to
survive. The world population will probably drop to around two billion
by 2100
There are no magic bullets that will keep industrial man going. Forget
shale oil, fusion, etc. Fortunes have been spent with little to show.
Most of the recent technological improvements in fuel efficiency while
worthwhile have been relatively minor and incremental.
We have to learn to exploit renewable resources to our best advantage.
There is no one answer. What is used will depend on location,
availability of sunlight, wind, water and so on.
Most people alive today will witness the initial collapse but few will
know what the final outcome is likely to be.
Previously people lived from generation to generation with little need
to look a long way into the future and ponder our actions. Nature
always provided for us.
The twentieth century was the first time in the history of the human
race that there was a real need for mankind to take a long term hard
look at where we had come from and where were are going, to ponder what
we were doing to our home.
We did not. We have failed miserably and are living as if the party can
go on indefinitely. It can not. Most are in a state of denial but the
end of the party is in sight.
Jon Bryan
Notes
(1) King Hubbert was a geologist with Shell in the fifties who
developed the best scientific method to date for forecasting oil
production based on the experience of the oil industry in the lower
forty-eight states of the USA. His forecasts made in the mid fifties
that production would peak in 1970 in the lower forty-eight and
thereafter go into an irreversible decline has proven accurate within
five percent. A recently published book called Hubbert's Peak gives an
analysis of the global energy scenario and predictions. For more
information on the future of oil do a search for 'King Hubbert' on the
Internet.
(2) Take a look at the National Geographical Magazine of June 1974 and
check out Hubberts curve of projected oil production. It is eerie how
accurate his projection was.
(3) For a grim look at what future societies might look like read
Robert Kaplan's article 'The Coming Anarchy' in the Atlantic Monthly
magazine on the Internet. He has also written a number of books worth
reading on how societies are breaking down in various parts of the
world.
(4) For more on the impending energy crisis look up L. F. Ivanhoe and
Novum Corp on the net. You will get links to many interesting sites
from those searches.
(5) In 1900 the white European population of the world was around
fifteen percent. Today it is around seven percent and declining.
(6) Two interesting websites relating to the declining oil reserves are
http://www.oilcrisis.com and http://www.dieoff.com
which have contain
extensive articles and have numerous links to other sites. 'Oilcrisis'
deals mostly with oil but 'Dieoff' has articles covering an extensive
range of social problems that make fascinating though foreboding
reading themselves.
(7) For an excellent book on the influence of resources on the history
of nations and empires read Geodestinies by Walter Youngquist. It
covers the history of a multitude of resources from thousands of years
ago to the present and looks ahead at what is in store for mankind.
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