by Marc Widdowson
THE PHOENIX PRINCIPLE
AND THE
COMING DARK AGE
Social Catastrophes--Human Progress
3000 BC to AD 3000
Synopsis
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Introduction |
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The biggest problem is when everything seems to be going well. |
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PART I - A RECURRENT AND GLOBAL PHENOMENON The evidence Dark ages have occurred over and over again. Here are the common features. |
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Chapter 1 - Demise of a superpower |
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Egypt was number 1 superpower for 2500 years, and is now in the third world. |
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Chapter 2 - What goes up… |
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Rise and fall is the most persistent theme in history. |
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Chapter 3 - Imposing order |
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Decline involves the loss of authority and break-up of political entities. |
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Chapter 4 - Creating wealth |
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Decline involves the disruption of trade. |
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Chapter 5 - Asserting a moral way |
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Decline involves the rejection of traditional culture and values. |
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Chapter 6 - The human ferment |
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Decline occurs for complex reasons that are inherent to history. |
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Chapter 7 - Rotten at the core |
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Societies decline only when they are rotten, although external factors may be a trigger. |
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Chapter 8 - The principle of mutual causality |
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Every moment of history is both a turning point and a point of continuity with the past. |
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Chapter 9 - The camel's back |
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Societies accumulate outmoded institutions that inhibit progress. |
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Chapter 10 - The phoenix principle |
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A dark age is a time of creative destruction behind a veil of obscurity. |
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PART II - A THEORY OF HISTORY AND SOCIETY Understanding Coercive, contractual and co-operative relationships. How they interact and evolve. |
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Chapter 11 - Motivation and method |
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Why we need a rigorous model and how to approach it. |
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Chapter 12 - Terms and concepts |
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Overview of the key concepts: integration, organisation & cohesion. |
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Chapter 13 - Political integration |
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The properties of the coercive relationship. |
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Chapter 14 - Economic organisation |
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The properties of the contractual relationship. |
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Chapter 15 - Social cohesion |
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The properties of the co-operative relationship. |
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Chapter 16 - Coupling |
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How the three types of relationship influence each other. |
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Chapter 17 - Defining dark ages |
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Explaining the characteristics of dark ages in terms of the theory. |
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Chapter 18 - Problems and non-problems |
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Common explanations of decline -- and the true story. |
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Chapter 19 - Proximate causes |
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The immediate reasons why societies fall from ascendancy. |
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Chapter 20 - Ultimate causes |
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The underlying conveyor belt logic that propels every society to its doom. |
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PART III - A WORLD OF CONTRADICTIONS We fit the pattern |
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Chapter 21 - The story so far |
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How the world got to the situation it's in, with losers and winners. |
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Chapter 22 - Going to the dogs |
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Do we really have problems or is this just the usual lament? |
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Chapter 23 - Internal disintegration |
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How individual countries are losing control over their populations. |
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Chapter 24 - Internal disorganisation |
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How economic development is threatened within each country. |
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Chapter 25 - Internal discohesion |
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How countries are seeing the erosion of values once held in common. |
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Chapter 26 - International disintegration |
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How the world is becoming harder for any superpower to control. |
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Chapter 27 - International disorganisation |
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How world trade is under threat of catastrophic unravelling. |
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Chapter 28 - International discohesion |
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How the world's nations are finding their interests to be divergent. |
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Chapter 29 - Shocks to the system |
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Possible calamities that could trigger collapse given our loss of resilience. |
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Chapter 30 - A plague of blessings |
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Accumulated problems that inhibit progress but cannot be eliminated. |
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PART IV - A HISTORY OF THE THIRD MILLENNIUM What might develop |
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Chapter 31 - The coming dark age |
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Is it realistic to predict the future? Forecasts are so often wildly wrong. |
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Chapter 32 - The disintegration process |
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The coming gangsterism, invasions and nuclear wars. |
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Chapter 33 - The disorganisation process |
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Decline of entrepreneurship, failure to innovate and technical decay. |
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Chapter 34 - The discohesion process |
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Selfishness and self-realisation; cultural atomisation, lost legitimacy. |
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Chapter 35 - The disintegrated world |
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A war of all against all; abandoned cities; widespread destruction. |
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Chapter 36 - The disorganised world |
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An impoverished world demanding hard-work and self-reliance. |
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Chapter 37 - The discohesive world |
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Re-emergence of strong moral communities within an amoral sea. |
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Chapter 38 - The political recovery |
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Restoration of strong, undemocratic government. New world powers. |
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Chapter 39 - The economic recovery |
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Technology breakthroughs; moving to a higher gear on earth and in space. |
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Chapter 40 - The social recovery |
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New cultures and civilisations. Possibly a global society. |
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Envoi |
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What is to be done |